Ex-Ante Impact Assessment of water policy reform in Southeastern of Tunisia:
A CGE Approach
DOI :
https://doi.org/10.18472/SustDeb.v2n2.2011.5818Mots-clés :
Reforma na política da água, Equilíbrio geral computacional, Matriz de contabilidade social, Zonas áridasRésumé
Localizada no sudeste da Tunísia, o território Medenine é caracterizado por um clima árido. A escassez de água foi acentuada pela crescente demanda de diferentes setores econômicos. A competição inter-setorial pela água, principalmente entre o turismo e a agricultura, representa um grande problema. Esta área de interesse socioeconômico e geopolítico foi alvo de diversos programas de desenvolvimento, em particular várias reformas na política da água. Apesar da intervenção pública já nos anos 1980, a avaliação integrada ex-ante de impacto (IIA) da reforma da política da água necessita de mais atenção em regiões áridas da Tunísia. Usando um modelo de equilíbrio geral computacional foi avaliado o impacto em toda a economia, resultante da reforma das políticas de água, que consistem em fornecer maior quantidade de água para os diferentes setores econômicos. Os objetivos centrais foram delinear um procedimento de construção de uma Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), descrever as opções políticas e apresentar os resultados preliminares. Os resultados do modelo mostram que o fornecimento de água segundo práticas não-convencionais para setores do turismo e da agricultura tem um impacto positivo na economia regional. Os resultados devem ser analisados com cautela, dada as várias limitações do trabalho que devem ser superadas. Este trabalho foi realizado no âmbito do Projeto Políticas de Uso da Terra e Desenvolvimento Sustentável em Países em Desenvolvimento (Lupis) (Reidsma et al., 2011).
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