Projection of GHG emissions from the energy sector in the context of the Nationally Determined Contribution.
Keywords:
setor elétrico brasileiro, emissão de gases de efeito estufa, Acordo de Paris, transição energética, política climáticaAbstract
In response to the need to mitigate the greenhouse effect, Brazil has committed to international agreements aimed at reducing emissions. The Paris Agreement, signed in 2015, required signatory countries to establish targets for the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). This study analyzes the progress of various energy subsectors in meeting Brazil’s emission reduction targets over recent years, with particular emphasis on the transportation sector. The analysis of available data highlights the applicability of statistical methods for trend detection and correlation analysis across energy subsectors. Such methods enable the estimation of GHG emission trajectories in the Brazilian energy sector through 2025, the final year of the first NDC implementation cycle. The results aim to inform the monitoring and refinement of existing targets, support the formulation of new goals for sustainable energy development, and guide the design of evidence-based public policies to accelerate the energy transition in Brazil. Projections indicate that, under current trends, the established emission reduction targets for the energy sector are unlikely to be achieved.
References
IPCC. Quinto relatório de avaliação do Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudanças Climáticas. 2014.
MCTI. Sexta Estimativas de Emissão de Gases do Efeito Estufa no Brasil. [S.l.]: Pearson, 2022.
EPE. Balanço energético nacional. 2023.
Rabelo, Nathália Akemi Tsuchiya. Avaliação da participação do setor de energia brasileiro nas emissões de gases do efeito estufa no contexto Contribuição Nacionalmente Determinada. 2023. Trabalho de Conclusão de Curso (Bacharelado em Engenharia de Energia) — Universidade de Brasília, Brasília, 2023. Disponível em https://bdm.unb.br/handle/10
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